Sabremetrics says the Angels are more like a 77-71 team than MLB's best.Anaheim has had an amazing year -- currently they sit pretty at 92-58, having already clinched the AL West with the best record in all of baseball. So, how have Vlad and company done it? Luck? Bad division? Bullpen dominance?

Our friends at Beyond the Box Score analyze the question, and when I say analyze, I mean really analyze. (Beyond the Box Score is a sabremetrics blog that uses advanced statistics and math to study baseball, completely independent of conventional baseball thinking.) According to a Monday article by Peter Bendix, "Part of the reason for this overperformance is that the Angels have been dramatically better in the clutch, all season – both pitchers and hitters."

The author utilizes a pitching stat called FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- to find that the Angels' pitchers are actually pitching better with runners on base than when the bases are empty. (This is atypical for MLB.) Peter Bendix writes:

So their defense is above-average. But it’s not amazing; and it’s certainly not worth four and a half wins. No, the main reason why the Angels’ actual ERA is lower than their FIP is that Angels pitchers have pitched particularly well with runners on base.

With no one on base, Angels pitchers have allowed the 12^th lowest OPS in baseball. But with men on base, Angels pitchers have allowed the 5^th lowest OPS. This explains how they are tied for second-highest strand percentage in the AL (74%). The only team with a higher strand percentage is Toronto (at 75%), who has both a lower ERA and lower FIP than the Angels, meaning they should strand more runners because they have better pitchers. (Incidentally, the Angels are tied with Tampa Bay, who also has a lower ERA and FIP than the Los Angeles).

Anaheim's hitters have been just as clutch. Peter writes:

With no one on base, Angels hitters are batting .249/.307/.381, good for a .688 OPS – 26^th "best" in baseball. But once they get someone on base, the rest of the lineup magically transforms into excellent hitters: with men on base, the Angels are batting .288/.353/.444. Their .797 OPS with men on base is good for 9^th best in baseball. That’s quite an improvement.

So they're really good in the clutch.  What does that mean for the postseason, when they look to conquer A.L. heavyweights such as Boston, Tampa Bay, Chicago, or Minnesota?  Sabremetrics (or at least one Sabremetrics author) believes the Angels' good fortune is due to run out.  Peter's analysis shows that Anaheim is more of a 77-71 team, not a 91-57 division-clincher.  He finds their true talent level to be "well below their record."  The question is, can the Angels ride the wave to a World Series Championship, or will the spike in the graph normalize, as it did for Colorado in last year's World Series?